I’ve been going through the Federal Races and have been deciding on my opinion on each of the races.
I did this by myself last cycle and did fairly well.
I had the democrats winning back the house and Senate. 32 seats in the house and 51 seats in the Senate.
I predicted the house correctly with the exception of Maffei, Madrid, Massa, and Duckworth who I had winning and Boyda and Shea Porter losing.
I also had the Senate Victories correct with the exception of Virgina and Tennessee. I had Harold Ford Jr. winning and Jim Webb losing.
I also had us winning those 3 special elections in 2008.
In my own personal sheet that I have been doing for 2008, I had before revision a 29 seat pickup for the Democrats in the House and a 7 Seat pickup in the Senate and a 308-230 Obama victory. After revising my lists today, I have expanded my victories to a level I honestly never thought was possible before. However after going through each one of these races I believe you can defend each and everyone of them.
I currently have a 37 seat pickup for the democrats with 4 congressional loses and 41 wins. And a 9 Seat pickup for Democrats in the Senate. With an Obama Victory of 311-227 victory.
This isn’t really done on raw numbers but more on my feel for the national mood and my predictions of how the general election will unfold. My list will no doubt change a lot in the next few months (especially when he picks a VP) however this is what I believe would happen if events fold out in the next few months as I think. Namely an Obama Thumping of John McCain.
These are the Races which I consider Democratic victories if I Extrapolate my predicted outcomes in the general (National mood, state, and outlook towards the Presidential Race):
1) Alabama 2nd Congressional Open (Everett) Bobby Bright
2) Alaska At-Large Congressional Don Young (contested primary) Ethan Berkowitz
3) Arizona 1st Congressional Open (Renzi) Ann Kirkpatrick
4) California 4th Congressional Open (Doolittle) Charlie Brown
5) California 26th Congressional David Dreier Russ Warner
6) Colorado 4th Congressional Maryiln Musgrave Besty Markey
7) Conneticut 4th Congressional Chris Shays Jim Himes
8) Florida 13th Congressional Vern Buchanan Christine Jennings
9) Florida 21st Congressional Lincoln Diaz-Balart Raul Martinez
10) Florida 24th Congressional Tom Feeney Suzanne Kosmas
11) Idaho 2nd Congressional Bill Sali Walter Minnick
12) Illinois 10th Congressional Mark Kirk Dan Seals
13) Illinois 11th Congressional Open (Weller) Debbie Halvorson
14) Illinois 18th Congressional Open (LaHood) Colleen Callahan
15) Michigan 7th Congressional Tim Walberg Mark Schauer
16) Michigan 9th Congressional Joe Knollenberg Gary Peters
17) Minnesota 2nd Congressional John Kline Steve Sarvi
18) Minnesota 3rd Congressional Open (Ramstead) Ashwin Madia
19) Missouri 6th Congressional Sam Graves Kay Barnes
20) Missouri 9th Congressional Open (Hulshof) TBA
21) Nebraska 2nd Congressional Lee Terry Jim Esch
22) Nevada 2nd Congressional Dean Heller Jill Derby
23) Nevada 3rd Congressional Jon Porter Dina Titus
24) New Jersey 3rd Congressional Open (Saxton) John Alder
25) New Jersey 5th Congressional Scott Garrett Dennis Shulman
26) New Jersey 7th Congressional Open (Ferguson) Linda Stender
27) New Meixco 1st Congressional Open (Wilson) Martin Heinrich
28) New Mexico 2nd Congressional Open (Pearce) Harry Teague
29) New York 13th Congressional Open (Fossella) Mike McMahon
30) New York 25th Congressional Open (Walsh) Dan Maffei
31) New York 26th Congressional Open (Reynolds) Jon Powers
32) New York 29th Congressional Randy Kuhl Eric Massa
33) North Carolina 8th Congressional Robin Hayes Larry Kissell
34) Ohio 1st Congressional Steve Chabot Steve Driehaus
35) Ohio 2nd Congressional Jean Schmidt(I had mean Jean winning last time I think Obama helps Wulsin enough to get the win) Victoria Wulsin
36) Ohio 15th Congressional Open (Pryce) Mary Jo Killroy
37) Ohio 16th Congressional Open (Regula) John Boccieri
38) Virginia 2nd Congressional Thelma Drake Glenn Nye
39) Virginia 11th Congressional Open (Davis) TBA
40) Washington 8th Congressional Dave Reichert Darcy Burner
41) Wyoming At Large Congressional Open (Cubin) Gary Trauner
Races to watch:
1) Arizona 3rd Congressional John Shadegg Bob Lord
2) California 42nd Congressional Gary Miller Ed Chau
3) California 46th Congressional Dana Rohrabacher Debbie Cook
4) Florida 8th Congressional Ric Keller Charlie Stuart
5) Florida 9th Congressional Gus Bilarakis Bill Mitchell
6) Florida 18th Congressional Illeana Ros-Lehtinen Annette Taddeo
7) Florida 25th Congressional Mario Diaz-Balart Joe Garcia
8) Illinois 6th Congressional Peter Roskam Jill Morganthaler
9) Illinois 13th Congressional Judy Biggert Scott Harper
10) Illinois 15th Congressional Tim Johnson Steve Cox
11) Minnesota 6th Congressional Michele Bachmann Elwiyn Tinklenberg
12) Ohio 14th Congressional Steve Latourette Bill O’Neil
13) Pennslyvania 15th Congressional Charlie Dent Sam Bennett
14) South Carolina 2nd Congressional Joe Wilson Rob Miller
15) Texas 10th Congressional Michael McCAul Larry Doherty
16) Texas 7th Congressional John Culberson Michael Skelly
17) Virginia 5th Congressional Virgil Goode Tom Perriello
18) West Virginia 2nd Congressional Shelly Capito Anne Barth
19) Maryland 1st Congressional Open (Gilchrest) Frank Kratovil
Democratic Loses:
1) Florida 16th Congressional Tim Mahoney (Don’t know his opponent is but he barely beat Negron with Mark Foley’s name on the ballot)
2) Kentucky 3rd Congressional John Yarmuth Anne Northup
3) Pennslyvania 10th Congressional Chris Carney Chris Hackett
4) Texas 22nd Congressional Nick Lampson Pete Olson
Potential Democratic Loses
1) Alabama 5th Congressional Open (Cramer) Parker Griffith
2) Arizona 8th Congressional Giffords Randy Graff
3) California 11th Congressional McNerney Dean Andel
4) Kansas 2nd Congressional Boyda Jim Ryun
5) New Hampshire 1st Congressional Shea-Porter Jeff Bradley
6) Oregon 5th Congressional Open (Hooley) Kurt Schrader
Overall Dem +37
111th Congress
Democrats 273
Republicans 162
62.75% controlled by Dems
Maximum Dem Gain Scenario
Overall Dem +60
111th Congress
Democrats 296
Republicans 139
68.05% controlled by Dems
Senatorial
Democratic Pickups
1) Virgina Open (Warner) Warner
2) New Mexico Open (Dominici) Udall
3) New Hampshire Sunnunu Sheehan
4) Colorado Open (Allard) Udall
5) Alaska Stevens Begich
6) Minnesota Coleman Franken
7) North Carolina Dole Hagan
8) Mississippi Wicker Musgrove
9) Oregon Smith Merkley
Potential Democratic Pickups
1) Maine Collins Allen
2) Kentucky McConnell Lunsford
3) Texas Cornyn Noreiga
4) Nebraska Open(Hagel) Klebb
5) Kansas Roberts Slattery
Potential Democratic Loses
1) Louisiana Landreui Kennedy
Overall Democrat +9
111th Congress
Democrats 60
Republicans 40
Filibuster Proof Majority
60% Dem Controlled
Maximum Dem Gain Scenario
Overall Democrat +14
111th Congress
Democrats 65
Republicans 35
65% Dem Controlled
Presidential
State Obama McCain Electoral Votes
California Dem 55
Texas** Rep 34
New York Dem 31
Florida* Rep 27
Illinois Dem 21
Pennsylvania* Dem 21
Ohio* Dem 20
Michigan* Dem 17
Georgia** Rep 15
North Carolina* Rep 15
New Jersey** Dem 15
Virginia* Dem 13
Massachusetts Dem 12
Washington Dem 11
Indiana* Rep 11
Tennessee Rep 11
Missouri* Rep 11
Arizona Rep 10
Maryland Dem 10
Wisconsin** Dem 10
Minnesota Dem 10
Colorado* Dem 9
Alabama Rep 9
Louisiana** Rep 9
South Carolina Rep 8
Kentucky Rep 8
Oregon** Dem 7
Oklahoma Rep 7
Connecticut Dem 7
Iowa** Dem 7
Mississippi** Rep 6
Arkansas Rep 6
Kansas Rep 6
Utah Rep 5
Nevada* Dem 5
New Mexico* Dem 5
West Virginia Rep 5
Nebraska Rep 4(Rep)/1(Dem)
Idaho Rep 4
Maine Dem 4
New Hampshire* Rep 4
Hawaii Dem 4
Rhode Island Dem 4
Montana** Rep 3
Deleware Dem 3
South Dakota Rep 3
Alaska* Dem 3
North Dakota Rep 3
Vermont Dem 3
District of Columbia Dem 3
Wyoming Rep 3
Obama 311 McCain 227 total 538
*denotes First Tier Battleground
**denotes Second Tier Battleground
Some comments on the Congressional races first off Florida, Michigan,Minnesota,Ohio,Nebraska and Illinois are extremely hard to determine at this point.
Michigan, and Florida because I have no idea if Obama can win Florida and bring up some of these congressional elections who need a nudge over the top and Michigan because I need Obama to perform their like a Democratic President is expected to (in my rankings I’m assuming he can and I honestly think he’s going to make Florida a real serious race).
Minnesota, Nebraska, Ohio and Illinois are all about Obama coatails. I think Obama wins us the congressional district with Omaha in it because I see a huge victory their for Obama and its one electoral vote. And all the races in Minnesota and Illinois except MN-03 and Il-11 which I think we win either way, depend heavily on how big of numbers Obama racks up. All the Ohio districts except Mary Jo Killroy depend on Obama winning Ohio as well and if he can give us a more then 51-49 margin.(53-47 would do it for the all those congressmen and its what I’m assuming he wins by in the end)
Missouri I think is the race that goes down to the wire, I have McCain winning in an Obamaesque fashion in the state primary. But I think its enough to win those two seats.
Virginia Obama just needs to win and the two seats I have democrats winning Davis and Drake, go into the democratic column. (Davis will go dem either way)
Also if you notice I have Obama doing very well in the West. I think this is where Obama coattails will be strongest and will move us to victories in Wyoming, Idaho and Nevada. While he won’t win us Wyoming and Idaho on the Presidential level, he will drive democratic turnout enough and in combination with a bad incumbent in Idaho and a good candidate in Wyoming, I see two victories in these blood red states.
I have Alaska going hard hard democratic if you notice. I have us winning the Senate,house and electoral votes. I think Stevens gets indicted after he’s nominated and they are screwed because they won’t be able to get his name off the ballot. I think we can win all three if Obama goes to the state once after Stevens get indicted.
In regards to the Senatorial race fairly simple, 7 are pretty much assuming we win the top 4 gimme races and the two tossups in blue states (Oregon and Minnesota) I think Stevens goes down in Alaska and black turnout in Mississippi gives Musgrove a big win. North Carolina i have us wining based on some of the polling and I think Obama will drive the black vote up and could potentially win the state and the Senate Seat for the democrats.
Thoughts comments?
update:I changed the Missouri 9th race to TBA as their are two legit contenders for the democratic nod and denoted the contested primary in Alaska At Large.
Does anyone know who Mahoney’s opponent is, I couldn’t find it.
update two: changing races based on tonight’s results, just plugging in the primary winners
I am a glass-half-empty kind of guy, so I do not agree with all of your House predictions. Some thoughts on some of the races:
(1) AK-AL. Berkowitz is a great candidate, and I would like nothing more than to oust Don Young, but I do not think we will get the chance. Parnell is basically a proxy for Queen Sara Palin, and I predict he beats Young easily in the primary and then unfortunately wins the general by a fairly close margin.
(2) CA-04. Maybe I have dismissed Brown too quickly, but I just think the district is too conservative to win. I think I would rather face Ose in the general, even though he is the moderate, but it will be very hard to win either way.
(3) CA-26. I have seen no evidence that we can knock off Dreier. While the district is winnable, this seat is safe GOP until a close poll surfaces.
(4) CT-04. I am not sure here. Himes has raised a boatload, but I have a lingering feeling that if we could not oust Shays in ’06, we may never do so. Still, this race is winnable.
(5) FL-13. Ditto. I feel like we missed our shot here. Then again, that Roll Call article today on Buchanan’s shady business work can only help us.
(5) FL-24. To me, this is a bellweather race on how well we will do. I wish we had a poll here or some on-the-ground news. I too am watching this race very closely.
(6) ID-01. I am sorry: I just see no way we win this seat.
(7) IL-18. It looks like Schrock may run away with this seat. Hasn’t our substitute candidate fundraised poorly? I wish we could win as I do not want some 27 year-old nasty GOPer. We already have Adam Putnam and Patrick McHenry.
(8) MN-02. This seat is winnable, but Sarvi has not been getting a lot of play. I would put this seat as at least Republican favored right now unless I am missing something.
(9) MO-09. Another bellweather race. Our primary is between State Rep. Judy Baker and Fmr. State House Speaker Steve Gaw. This is a seat that leans to the GOP but is winnable. The GOP field is weak — including the embarrassing Brock Olivo — and does not include any heavyweights. We did not get our best candidate — fmr LG Joe Maxwell — but we have a good shot. In my opinion, this race is a national bellweather.
(10) NE-02. Safe GOP until proven otherwise.
(11) NV-02. I like Derby, but this is a red district. Plus, there won’t be another nasty GOP primary like in 2006 which ended up sapping Heller and leading to a 50-45 final. I would put this one as Republican favored, but not safe. Hopefully Jim Gibbons’ problems help Derby and Titus.
(12) NV-03. A huge bellweather for us. We did not get our top candidate and Porter has tried to cut a moderate image. But the district is marginal. To me, this is one of the key bellweathers which will indicate how we are doing nationally.
(13) NJ-05. I love the blind rabbi and Garrett is way too conservative for the district, but Garrett will be heavily favored until proven otherwise. I may gain some optimism if Shulman continues his strong fundraising.
(14) OH-01. Another national bellweather. Chabot is a skilled politician we can’t quite beat. This is probably the key bellweather race in the key general election state. One to watch.
(15) OH-02. I am sorry. Wulsin is just a poor candidate. Kind of like Robin Weintraub in OH-05 and Francine Busby in CA-50. Bad candidates in winnable seats. I wish I could agree that we win here.
(16) NJ-03. I like Adler a lot, but the district leans GOP because of Ocean and Burlington Counties. I am still worried that Adler being from Cherry Hill — outside of the district’s base — will not be helpful.
I agree on Joe Garcia (FL-25), Michael Skelly (TX-07), and Frank Kratovil (MD-01). All have tall orders to fill, but they are running strong races so far. I really like them, and all three could be great Members.
In the Senate, I love Musgrove right now too. Toss-up. In Alaska, it looks great so far, but I will not write off Stevens just yet. He has not won every time since 1968 for no reason; it is going to be tough to win. I think OR-Sen is the Senate bellweather. Blue state, but very strong incumbent and our candidate is good, but not our first choice. I still think Dole wins, but I also believe Franken will prevail in the end because Joker Coleman is too conservative. I would rank it (1) VA; (2) NM; (3) NH; (4) CO; (5) MN; (6) LA; (7) MS; (8) NC; (9) AK; (10) ME, with us ultimately winning 6-7 seats.
So, I take away from this several key bellweathers to watch: FL-24, MO-09, NV-03, OH-01, FL-25, NJ-03. Not to mention WY-AL and AL-02.
I know Reid has said otherwise, but I don’t buy that Lieberman will be a member of the caucus long-term.
I go in order of likelihood.
I disagree with a few.
Shulman is doing good, but not nearly good enough at this point, to say “I think they can cross the finish line.” Same goes with Jill Derby, Sarvi, Callahan, Warner, and Brown.
Also, I think you have problems predicting primary winners. Don Young is far from a sure thing. Judy Baker (I know it can be mind-numbing – I have my own list) is likely to be outfundraised (and I would expect beaten) soon by Gaw (former speaker of the state house IIRC)? Which is odd, because in other cases, NM-01 and NM-02 you declare the candidate is TBA.
Governor Races:
Dem pickups – MO
Rep Pickups – None
Net Dem Gain +1
Likely Range is 1-2 seat gain
Senate Races:
Dem Pickups – VA, NM, NH, CO, AK, MN, OR
Rep Pickups – None
Net Gain +7
Likely Range is 6-9 seat gain
House Races:
Dem Pickups:
IL-10, IL-11, AZ-01, LA-04, MI-07, MI-09, MN-03, NJ-03,
NJ-07, NM-01, NM-02, NY-13, NY-25, NY-26, NY-29, OH-01,
OH-15, OH-16, VA-11, AL-02, CT-04, MO-06, MO-09, NV-03,
NC-08, WA-08, FL-08, FL-21
28 Pickups
Rep Pickups:
TX-22, FL-16, PA-10
3 Losses
Net Gain +25 seats
Likely Range is 20-30 seat gain
I hope you are wrong on KY-3, as I’m sure you are. I dont really care losing Lampson, Carney, or Mahoney. Those were all fluke wins that we really shouldnt expect to keep anyway. Especially TX-22. What a Republican hell hole. (Used to live there).
I definitely agree on your Minnesota analysis. It will really come down to Obama turnout. If Obama wins Minnesota by the 10% as he’s projected, MN-3 and MN-2 will be ours. MN-2 will easily be going Obama, as will MN-3 with an even higher margin. Both of these CD’s have been trending Democrats very very quickly. We decimated their state house delegations to hardly being on the map to having majorities probably only 2-3 cycles ago.
MN-6 has shown almost zero bluing except for the suburbs around the Twin Cities, which accounts for probably half of the district, or maybe 40% but this is really counterbalanced by the huge Republicans totals in the exurban areas that vote Republican by at least 10, if not closer to 20%. I just learned that in all of MN-6, only one precinct votes more than 60% Democrat, and it’s in St. Cloud and is probably the precinct for liberal St. Cloud State University. Winning this will really take huge Republican dissatisfied and a large Obama GOTV.
It’s Ashwin Madia, not Ashwan. 🙂
I also agree about Alaska. No one campaigns there, they haven’t had a presidential campaign visit since I think I remember reading it was in the 60’s. If he really does campaign in every state, then that will probably resonate in Alaska as, finally someone cares about us!
Democrats have fielded strong challengers in both NC-10 and NC-5. Although both districts are very red, both incumbents (Patrick McHenry and Virginia Foxx) are embarrassingly bad. It would be great to knock one or both off in this big wave election – we have the candidates to do it:
Daniel Johnson (NC-10): http://www.danieljohnson08.org/
Roy Carter (NC-5): http://www.democracyforamerica…
margin of victory I think is certainly possible.
Minnesota has a shit ton of colleges, with the 50,000 student body at the U among the nations largest. I already talked to the guy in charge at the DFL about organizing all the colleges and it is going to be planned, prepared, organized; better than ever before. I’m sure 18-25 turnout will be astronomical and like 65% Obama.
I just cant wait 🙂 This will be such an excellent year.